This is how Denmark can protect itself from missile attacks—for DKK 19 billion
On Thursday 12 December 2006, panic broke out among the police. In the middle of the Holbæk Motorway, a vehicle was spotted carrying missiles and heading directly towards Copenhagen, where heads of government from all over Europe had gathered for an EU summit.
However, the alarm was quickly cancelled. It turned out that the Danish Armed Forces were moving the last remnants of the Danish ground-based air defence system, the Hawk anti-aircraft missiles, into storage in Værløse. For decades, the Hawk had protected the capital from missile attacks—until 2005, when the last launch pads were closed.
Since then, Denmark has not had a ground-based air defence against missiles launched from land, ships, or aircraft. In fact, Denmark is probably the Northern European country that is least protected against missile attacks.
The government now wants to change that, and last week it emerged that there is a political majority in favour of bringing forward the purchase of two short-range ground-based air defence systems and one long-range one—an investment of DKK 19 billion over the next ten years.
According to experts, it is just enough to be able to defend the most important military infrastructure and avoid very significant civilian casualties. This includes, among other things, larger cities such as Copenhagen and important ports such as Esbjerg as well as military targets such as Skrydstrup Airport and the naval bases in Korsør and Frederikshavn.
However, the future three air defence systems will not be identical. Drones and missiles can move in different trajectories and at different speeds. Therefore, air defence is typically tiered, so that different systems fight different missiles at different altitudes and trajectories.
Traditionally, an effective air defence must consist of three tiers: a long-range defence that can shoot down targets at a distance of over 150 kilometres, a medium-range defence of up to 150 kilometres, and a short-range defence that can protect at a distance of 30–50 kilometres.
German umbrella
If we start with the most powerful missiles, the intercontinental ballistic missiles—such as Russian RS-28 Sarmat, which can reach from continent to continent at speeds of 25,000 km/h—Denmark will probably have to give up and turn to Germany, which in 2022 founded the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), which Denmark joined in 2023.
It is a pan-European attempt to purchase and build a common air defence across Europe. The Sky Shield initiative focuses on the procurement of a three-tiered air defence system. Initially, Germany has ordered the Israeli-American long-range Arrow 3 air defence system, which shoots down missiles outside the atmosphere.
Arrow 3 has a range of up to 2,400 kilometres, so Denmark can be covered by Germany, which is investing DKK 24 billion in Arrow 3. In addition, ESSI is relying on the American Patriot system for the medium-range and German IRIS-T system for the short-range missiles.
Large countries such as France, Italy, Spain, and Poland are not part of ESSI, partly in protest that the long-range French-Italian SAMP-T has been rejected in favour of the Israeli-American Arrow.
If Denmark can cover itself under the German air defence umbrella, it will probably not have to invest in a long-range air defence system such as Arrow, THAAD, SAMP-T, or David’s Sling. Instead, we can ‘make do’ with buying a medium-range air defence system such as Patriot combined with shorter-range systems such as German IRIS-T SLM or Norwegian-American NASAMS.
Go through the gallery below to read descriptions of four of the air defence systems that are in play to defend Denmark against missiles and drones.
Sources: RTX, Lockheed Martin, Diehl Defence, Kongsberg, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
System: NASAMS. Range on land: up to 50 km. Price per battery: DKK 157 million. Missile type: AMRAAM, Sidewinder, or IRIS. Radar detection: up to 120 km. Speed: Mach 4. Price per missile: DKK 7.5 million. Illustration: Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace.
System: IRIS-T. Range on land: up to 40 km. Price per battery: DKK 1 billion. Missile type: IRIS-T. Radar detection: up to 250 km. Speed: Mach 3. Price per missile: DKK 3 million. Illustration: Diehl Defence.
System: PATRIOT. Range on land: 160 km. Price per battery: DKK 5 billion. Missile type: PAC-2 and PAC-3. Radar detection: 160 km. Speed: Mach 5. Price per missile: DKK 25 million. Illustration: RTX.
System: DAVID’S SLING. Range on land: up to 250 km. Price per battery: DKK 1.7 billion. Missile type: Stunner. Radar detection: up to 300 km. Speed: up to Mach 7.5. Price per missile: DKK 6.8 million. Illustration: Rafael Advanced Defence Systems.
Patriot high on the list
According to Hans Peter Michaelsen, independent military analyst and former control and warning officer for the Hawk system, Patriot has long been high on the wish list of the Danish Armed Forces.
“Patriot has proven to be very effective in Ukraine, and much suggests that Patriot is a perfect fit. The USA has many units, our neighbouring countries Germany and Sweden also have Patriot, and this means that it’s easy to get things started,” he says.
Patriot can be used to defend against low-flying cruise missiles such as the Kalibr as well as Russian ballistic missiles such as the Iskander and the hypersonic Kinzhal.
Patriot is considered by many to be the most advanced air defence system in the world, and this is also reflected in its price. Sweden has bought four Patriot systems at a total price of DKK 21 billion. However, it takes time to implement Patriot. Although Sweden received the first Patriot systems in 2021, they are only expected to be fully operational in 2025.
Since the war in Ukraine broke out, several European countries have invested in ground-based air defence, which is why the production queue for Patriot, among other systems, is long.
“In recent years, countries such as Austria and Switzerland have invested massively in air defence, and they have a less strategical location than Denmark, which controls access to the Baltic Sea. We risk ending up at the back of the queue if we don’t place an order for air defence systems quickly,” Hans Peter Michaelsen says.
He therefore proposes that Denmark take an unconventional approach and start by renting a Patriot battery from the USA, so that the Danish Armed Forces can begin educating and training Danish soldiers.
When Finland had to invest in new long- and medium-range air defence, they opted out of the Patriot because of the price. The Finns thought the system was too expensive, and the choice fell instead on the Israeli David’s Sling, which was bought for DKK 2.3 billion.
If Russia chooses to send Kalibr cruise missiles over Denmark from the Baltic Sea or the North Sea, the Norwegian-American NASAMS or the German IRIS-T are the most obvious choices. If you ask Hans Peter Michaelsen, NASAMS makes the most sense.
NASAMS can use F-16 missiles
NASAMS is a system developed by Norwegian Kongsberg in collaboration with American RTX, and it has become popular and in demand for two reasons.
Firstly, the radar architecture is open, which means that up to 25 different radars can be connected to the launch pad. At the same time, many NATO member countries have the AMRAAM missile in stock, as it is already one of the most used air-to-air missiles—and that missile can also be used as a surface-to-air missile in NASAMS
NASAMS’s supply chains are thus stable and not dependent on a single producer, as is the case with the Patriot system.
“We already have a surplus of AMRAAM missiles from the F-16. We can use them for NASAMS, just as the upcoming mobile radars for airspace surveillance, the GM200 MM/C from Thales, are compatible with NASAMS,” Hans Peter Michaelsen says.
He proposes to place a Patriot system at Stevns on Zealand, from where it can cover the capital, and then let two NASAMS systems cover military facilities, e.g. F-35 in Skrydstrup and Esbjerg Harbour.
Before the procurement of the three new Danish ground-based air defence systems, the parties behind the Defence Agreement must agree on a new sub-agreement. It is expected to be negotiated during the month of April.
