Arms factories could decide the war: This is how the most popular artillery shell is manufactured
Last year, the Ukrainian military fired up to 7,000 155 mm artillery shells at Russia—every single day.
Since the Second World War, the only 60 cm long artillery shell has been one of the most used ammunition types in wars. Although drones, electronic warfare, and large missiles have shaped the arms debate, the artillery shell remains the type of ammunition that soldiers use most often.
But Western manufacture of artillery shells cannot keep up with Russia, and right now, Ukrainians have to ration. Currently, they only fire around 2,000 shells each day, while Russians fire four times as many shells the other way.
Right now, Russia manufactures up to two million artillery shells per year, while Europe and the USA are struggling to reach one million per year.
This comes after two years of brutal and intense war in Ukraine, which has most experts and analysts agreeing on one thing: the manufacture of weapons and ammunition is the key to winning the gruelling war on the battlefield.
But why is it really so difficult for Denmark and our Western allies to ramp up ammunition manufacture and match a country like Russia, whose economy corresponds to the economy of the four Nordic countries—Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland—combined?
Simple metalworking
The 155 mm artillery shell is a simple shell consisting of a 60 cm long steel shell filled with about 10 kg of TNT explosive.
“The shell is popular for two reasons. It’s simple and cheap to manufacture, and it has a good balance between range, size, and warhead. It’s small enough to be easily transported, but at the same time can do great damage and be fired over relatively long distances, explains Peter Hald, explosives expert and safety manager at Aarhus University’s Department of Chemistry. He has previously worked in the Danish Armed Forces.
The shell is fired from a cannon, typically a mobile howitzer, which fires the shell up to 20 km away.
The first step in the process is to shape the shell from a steel rod. This is done using a tried-and-tested process called hot forging, also known as drop forging. The steel is heated to around 1,100 degrees. The workpiece is then shaped into form using a drop hammer.
“Drop forging is a classic manufacturing method in the metal industry and can be carried out on standard machines. We don’t have much of that industry left in Denmark, as much is outsourced to Asia or Eastern Europe. But we do have both companies and machines here, says Niels Skat Tiedje, associate professor at the Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering at DTU, where he researches metallurgy.
The shell is then reheated and cooled in an oil bath before the finished shell is painted, often in green camouflage colours. The shell’s colour also indicates the shell’s contents. For example, a shrapnel shell is olive green with yellow writing, while a smoke shell is light green.
Like melting candles
The next step is to make the explosive. The most commonly used explosive is 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene, abbreviated TNT.
TNT has the advantage of low friction and shock sensitivity, so it can tolerate being shot out of a cannon and pressurised without detonating. At the same time, it is an effective explosive that produces many, fast fragments.
The explosive is manufactured using three basic chemicals: sulphuric acid, nitric acid, and toluene. When toluene is nitrated, it becomes trinitrotoluene, which is a solid light yellow substance.
The manufacturing process takes place in large vessels, where the key is to control time, temperature, air purification, mixing, and a number of other process parameters.
Once the TNT is produced, it is melted at around 80 degrees and cast into the steel shell.
“It’s a fairly simple process that is considered standard industrial production. Many Danish process manufacturers work with the same processes, just for other products. Casting TNT into the shells is not difficult either. It’s a bit like melting candles,” Peter Hald explains.
It is possible to add RDX, a plastic explosive, to the mixture to make the shell more resistant to impact.
Out on the battlefield, soldiers then mount the detonator itself, which is used to detonate the TNT explosive in the shell, and then the shell is placed in the cannon.
As far as we know, no TNT is manufactured in Denmark. But it does not require machines or skills that we do not already have in Denmark, Peter Hald assesses. But that is not the most decisive factor:
“But we’re talking about explosives that are both volatile and toxic, so you can’t just start up TNT manufacture in the same premises as an existing manufacture, for example in the pharmaceutical industry. It would require separate production facilities,” he says.
Frederikshavn back on the map
Politicians have found a solution to this part of the problem. Back in October last year, Danish Minister of Defence Troels Lund Poulsen held a press conference in Frederikshavn.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has now lasted a year and a half, has put ammunition manufacture in Europe under severe pressure. This critical situation has made clear the need to re-establish ammunition manufacture in Denmark. We are now taking the first step towards that with the acquisition of the facilities in Elling. Ammunition supply is of national security interest,” Troels Lund Poulsen said at the press conference, after he had paid DKK 20 million for the buildings outside Frederikshavn, where he had summoned the press.
Back in 1968, the Ammunition Arsenal had moved from Bådsmandsstrædes Barracks in Copenhagen to Elling, just outside Frederikshavn, where the factory was quickly nicknamed “Krudten” (eng. “The Gunpowder”). All Danish ammunition was manufactured here until 2008, when the state sold the factory to the Spanish manufacturer Expal. However, the Spanish arms manufacturer left Denmark in 2020, leaving the 50 buildings totalling 18,000 m2 empty.
The buildings are constructed in a special way, which means that in the event of an explosion, the walls blow out, while the roof stays in place, so that it does not fall on the employees. At the same time, the buildings are positioned in such a way that an explosion cannot spread to other buildings.
However, the Danish Ministry of Defence has stated that they expect to spend DKK 50–200 million on renovating the buildings, without specifying what needs to be renovated.
The conclusion must be that buildings, machinery, and technical competences are all available within Denmark’s borders, which is why there should be no technical barriers to quickly start Danish manufacture of the coveted 155 mm artillery shells.
Last-minute purchases
The challenge, on the other hand, lies elsewhere, namely in the way in which Denmark and the rest of Europe buy new equipment.
So far, there is scant information on how the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organisation (DALO) will kick-start Danish ammunition manufacture. According to Ingeniøren’s sources, several Danish companies have shown interest, just as Norwegian Nammo, German Rheinmetall, and French Nexter have also shown interest in “Krudten”.
Perhaps the most obvious choice is Europe’s largest manufacturer of 155 mm artillery shells, Norwegian Nammo. A conservative estimate is that it will take two to three years to establish manufacture, although both NATO and the Danish Ministry of Defence describe the lack of access to 155 mm artillery shells as critical.
At the same time, Nammo wants contracts that extend well into the future, preferably up to ten years, if they are to come to Frederikshavn.
This could prove to be an expensive affair for the Danish Ministry of Defence, because the price of 155 mm artillery shells is currently historically high due to the combination of low supply and high demand.
In October, NATO’s top military officer, American Admiral Rob Bauer, said that the market price for one 155 mm shell had risen from DKK 15,000 at the start of 2022 to just under DKK 60,000.
The USA itself in October paid an average of DKK 20,000 for the most modern 155 mm shells, including steel shell, explosive, and fuse. This is mainly due to the fact that the U.S. Department of Defense itself has several ammunition factories and can therefore adjust the capacity without prices skyrocketing.
“The American army has a fairly direct leverage to increase the manufacture of basic munitions like 155 mm artillery shells,” says Rafael Loss, expert on defence policy at the independent think tank European Council on Foreign Relations.
In Europe, the situation looks different. “There’s no government that can order the industry to manufacture more, they have to place orders through contracts,” Rafael Loss explains.
Last summer, however, the EU decided to allocate DKK 3.7 billion in an emergency package aimed at scaling up European manufacture of weapons and ammunition, and this prospect of billions in state aid has also contributed to the skyrocketing of shell prices.
Danish soldiers need to save
On top of the fact that Ukrainians are getting close to running out of ammunition due to European industrial policy, just a few years ago, Danish soldiers had to reduce the number of exercises with weapons.
Although Expal won a 7-year contract to supply low-calibre ammunition to the Danish Armed Forces in 2017, it was obviously not economically viable, and the Spanish company dropped the contract after just a few years, in 2020. This left the Danish Armed Forces with the prospect of running out of ammunition. They therefore had to break all procurement rules and urgently purchase ammunition for DKK 80 million, bypassing the usual tender procedures. Only in 2023 did regular deliveries of small-calibre ammunition begin to arrive again.
The situation is not unique to Denmark. When the war in Ukraine broke out, Germany only had ammunition stocks for two days of intense warfare—far from NATO’s goal of having stocks for at least a month’s war.
The process surrounding Expal and the ammunition factory in Frederikshavn has also given rise to some introspection in the Danish Armed Forces.
“For the Danish Armed Forces, it’s about looking at how to get robust supply chains: the just-in-time principle has proven not to always work,” DALO wrote back in September, with the organisation emphasising at the same time that it has no plans for state-owned ammunition manufacture.
“Right now, we envision a private initiative, possibly across several actors or in partnerships, but ultimately it is about the best and most financially responsible solution for the Danish Armed Forces,” DALO writes.
Neither the government nor the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organisation has so far presented a timetable for Danish ammunition manufacture.
