Danish expert disagrees with USA: Ukraine should be able to defend itself over Russian territory with new weapons
Traffic across the Atlantic will probably ramp up considerably in the near future. On Saturday, the House of Representatives approved the delayed military aid package to Ukraine, and already today, with the Senate expected to approve the package, ammunition and weapons could start rolling into Ukraine.
To be more specific, the House of Representatives has approved an aid package to Ukraine worth a total of USD 61 billion, which is just over DKK 420 billion.
According to Jacob Kaarsbo, senior analyst at the Think Tank Europa with work experience from the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, a crucial element of the huge aid package is that tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of artillery shells will be delivered to the Ukrainian frontline at a few days’ notice.
In January this year, Ingeniøren wrote about the growing shortage of artillery shells, especially the most widely used 155 mm ones. At the time, it was estimated that Russia fired up to four times as many shells as Ukraine, which had to ration. Since then, the balance of power has been further skewed.
“The ratio is currently 1:8 when it comes to 155 mm artillery shells, and without the aid package Ukraine expected to drop to 1:10 by summer. Secondly, the Ukrainian air defence will be reinforced with more American Patriot missiles and new improved air-to-air missiles,” Jacob Kaarsbo says.
EU weakened by limited production
Although the American aid package of DKK 420 billion sounds staggering, it is still a far smaller amount than the DKK 1.029 billion that the EU and its member states together have provided in aid to Ukraine since the start of the war in 2022.
The problem is that Europe is not in a position to convert the donations into weapons and ammunition itself. Production capacity is too low, and European arms industry is predominantly private, which is why existing orders cannot be simply overridden in favour of Ukraine.
A large number of European countries have been working for months to purchase 155 mm artillery shells for Ukraine but have not yet succeeded on a large scale.
But this can be done in the USA, where ammunition production is state-owned. One example is the McAlester Army Ammunition Plant in Oklahoma, which reportedly has 435 shipping containers ready, each loaded with 15 tonnes of ammunition, just waiting for the final signature on the aid package.
However, European arms manufacturers should not expect this weekend’s aid package to result in new orders.
According to Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, about USD 50 billion will flow through the nation’s defence industry, creating American jobs in over 30 states.
Illustration: RFE/RL/Serhii Nuzhnenko.
Long-range missiles on the way
Another—and perhaps the most startling—element of the aid package is the delivery of new long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine.
U.S. Senator Mark Warner told CBS News on Sunday that ATACMS missiles could be in Ukraine by the end of the week.
“It seems that they’re sending newer missiles with a longer range and that they can be delivered quickly. This could have a major impact on the course of the war,” Jacob Kaarsbo war.
The first ATACMS missiles were sent to Ukraine in October 2023.
But it was only a limited number, probably 20, and it was an older model with a range of up to 165 kilometres, so-called Anti-Personnel/Anti-Material (APAM).
The new ATACMS missiles, which should be on their way to Ukraine now, have a range of up to 300 kilometres. However, it is unclear how many ATACMS the USA expects to deliver.
The four metre long, 1.6 tonne missiles contain a 174 kg warhead. Some ATACMS have warheads that disperse in clusters and can trigger up to 1,000 detonations per missile, delivering a large effect over a wide area.
This type of cluster bomb has reportedly been used in Ukrainian attacks on the occupied Crimean peninsula, where the ATACMS missiles have destroyed numerous helicopters, ammunition depots, and missile launchers.
Until now, the Biden administration has been reluctant to use that type of missile for fear of escalating the conflict between NATO and Russia.
Jacob Kaarsbo is tired of that approach.
“It’s kind of the same crazy debate we had before we donated the first tanks, and then the F-16s. Those donations haven’t caused Putin to escalate and threaten with tactical nuclear weapons,” Jacob Kaarsbo says.
Getting rid of old stockpiles
The fact that the missiles are now on their way to Ukraine is not so much a strategic shift on Joe Biden’s part, but rather a practical need to get rid of the old American stockpiles.
Last year, the U.S. Armed Forces had 1,486 ATACMS missiles in stock, many of which are quite old. The first of those missiles were manufactured in the early 1990s, and many of them are now approaching their expiration date.
However, the expiry date does not mean that the missile is no longer combat-capable, military analyst Fabian Hinz from the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies previously explained on the social media X.
If Americans do not send the missiles to Ukraine, they will probably have to be destroyed, which is why the donation is basically free.
Jacob Kaarsbo believes that the fear of escalation, which still dominates in the USA and Germany, is unfounded.
Britain has previously donated Storm Shadow missiles and France SCALP missiles to Ukraine. These are missile types that resemble ATACMS in range, power, and speed. And they have not caused Russia to escalate the war in Ukraine.
The problem is that Britain and France do not themselves have the capacity to produce the necessary quantities of ammunition and weapons.
Currently, it is estimated that the storage and production capacity for long-range missiles is greatest at Lockheed Martin, which produces ATACMS, and at German Taurus Systems, which produces Taurus.
Russian glide bombs require attack over Russia
However, restrictions have been set on the use of the new large-scale arms deliveries from the USA: Ukraine must not use them for attacks on Russian territory.
Jacob Kaarsbo finds it frustrating that Russia and Vladimir Putin seem to continue to succeed in deterring the USA from delivering long-range offensive weapons. And Germany uses the same argument to reject sending long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
“Right now, Iran can see that it pays to stockpile nuclear weapons. The fear of escalation that dominates in the USA and Germany has long since been abandoned by France, the UK, and other EU countries,” Jacob Kaarsbo says.
Illustration: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Ritzau Scanpix.
It is not only in direct attack missions that the missiles may not be used over Russia.
Ukraine may also not use them to defend itself against Russia’s increasing use of glide bombs.
These are large bombs weighing between 250 and 500 kg that can cause great damage. The cost of the bombs is relatively low, as they do not require advanced electronics, and they can therefore be produced in large numbers and dropped over Ukraine from fighter jets located in Russian territory—for example against the city of Kharkiv.
Traditional air defence cannot effectively combat that type of bomb. Partly because they can be launched in large numbers and because it would exhaust stocks of expensive defence missiles like the Patriot.
“The only effective defence against glide bombs is to attack the Russian fighter jets while they are in Russia. This type of symmetrical defence is not against the UN Charter, and it’s exactly what we saw the USA, the UK, and France do when Iran attacked Israel,” Jacob Kaarsbo says.
No prospect of total collapse
It is especially on the eastern frontline around the industrial city of Donetsk that Russia has been applying pressure recently, first around Avdiivka and now the city of Chesiv Yar.
In addition to the lack of ammunition, the warm spring weather has probably also accelerated the Russian offensive. Normally, April is characterised by wet weather and mud, but not right now, and this has prompted Russia to advance with many armoured vehicles and tanks.
Jacob Kaarsbo has just returned to Denmark from the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, where he met with representatives from the Ukrainian government and top leadership of the army.
“There’s great relief that the aid package is now on its way, but it’s also mixed with frustration, bordering on bitterness, that it has taken so long and that the arms deliveries continue to come with restrictions,” Jacob Kaarsbo says.
Although Ukraine is being pressured across virtually the entire 1,000 kilometre frontline, it is not because Ukraine is on the verge of losing.
“Russia doesn’t have the capacity to take all of Ukraine, and there’s no prospect of that happening. Right now, it’s about how much loss the West is willing to accept by delaying and limiting aid,” Jacob Kaarsbo says.
